NORFOLK, Va. — Researchers at Old Dominion University’s Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC) have launched a website with city- and county-level COVID-19 model predictions for the Commonwealth.
The model uses current datasets to forecast what the next week’s number of COVID-19 cases could be.
Christopher Lynch is one of the project’s leaders.
“We want to be able to gain some sort of insight into what’s working and what’s not working as we’re tracking this pandemic,” said Lynch.
Based on the data ODU’s research team has collected, they've determined social distancing in the Commonwealth is working.
Ross Gore, the head of the VMASC lab said, so far, the number of cases ODU’s model has predicted has been pretty accurate.
“You’re starting to see for the most part that the measures that have been put in place are leveling off,” said Gore. “Some of the things we see in Norfolk is there’s some good evidence over the last week to 10 days that we’ve flattened the curve pretty drastically, whereas, if you look at Fairfax County, you start to see a little bit of evidence of that maybe in the last three or four days, but not so far back.”
The model can forecast the number of cases we could see by age group.
It also tracks what people are tweeting about the virus and has found the number of symptoms people are reporting has decreased.
Even then, Gore said there are still a lot of gaps when it comes to what we know about COVID-19 cases.
“There’s still a ton we don’t know. The number of asymptomatic people is a current question and seems to range drastically in terms of estimates,” Gore explained.
ODU's model is a sign of hope for Virginia: we’re beginning to turn the corner in the coronavirus pandemic.