RICHMOND, Va. — Researchers around Virginia released data from models tracking social distancing measures in the state, revealing that these efforts are indeed limiting the spread of COVID-19.
During Monday's coronavirus press conference, Northam proudly pointed to these models saying that "social distancing is working."
However, he warned that easing restrictions in the Commonwealth too soon could cause a spike in cases.
The University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute and the RAND Corporation started tracking social distancing trends in the state, which started in mid-March, to determine if they did mitigate the spread of the virus.
The key takeaways from these infectious disease models are as follows:
- Current social distancing efforts starting March 15 have paused the growth of the epidemic in the Commonwealth of Virginia. In this scenario, “paused” growth means that the rate of new cases is holding steady rather than increasing.
- Current trends suggest that Virginia’s statewide hospital bed capacity will be sufficient in the near future.
- Lifting social distancing restrictions too soon can quickly lead to a second wave.
In order to understand if social distancing measures were really working, UVA's Biocomplexity Institute developed a model that analyzed transmissibility and incubation period as well as population density and social behavior. The Institute modeled five potential scenarios, exploring slowing growth vs. pausing growth with social distancing in place until April 30 and June 10 compared to no mitigation.
“Currently, it appears as if the Commonwealth of Virginia is tracking with the pause scenario, which means that the residents of Virginia are doing an excellent job with mitigation,” said Bryan Lewis, Research Associate Professor for the Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing division for the Institute. “Even without perfect projections, we can confidently draw conclusions. We know that social distancing is working and lifting restrictions too early can lead to a second surge. We will continue to improve our models as more data become available. We plan to incorporate outcomes specific by age, integrate the role of seasonality, and analyze mitigation techniques such as a Test-Trace-Isolate approach.”