NORFOLK, Va. — After conducting several very informal polls of Hampton Roads residents about their like or dislike of snow, overwhelmingly most agree that a little snow on the ground Christmas morning would be wonderful.
There are, of course, snow-lovers who wish we would get buried under heavy snow, and others who are more practical and point out even a little snow can make travel difficult around the region.
But there does seem to be something magical about a mantle of white on the ground Christmas morning. So let's get into how likely it is for Hampton Roads to see some of that magic!
What is a White Christmas?
We will start by defining a "White Christmas" as one inch or more of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on December 25. What are Norfolk's chances for a White Christmas this year? Not good... but not zero!
How many times has Norfolk had a White Christmas?
Going back to the late 1890s, Norfolk has had just a handful of white Christmases. When you look at all the climate data, the chances are just under 5% that Norfolk would have snow on the ground on any given Christmas morning.
There were several white Christmases back in the 1930s to 1960s, with the last being in 1966 when residents of Norfolk woke up to four inches of snow on the ground. If you only consider the chances over the last 50 years, it is only around 1%.
But it can snow in late December, and back in 2010, we were nearly buried on Christmas Day. The records show less than an inch of snow fell before midnight on Christmas Day, but the snow was just beginning! On December 26, 2010, we picked up another 13.4 inches, bringing us a storm total of 14.2 inches! Technically, not a "white Christmas," but snow lovers were delighted, to say the least!
Christmas Day snow chances for other parts of Hampton Roads:
Climatologically speaking, the chances for snow on the ground Christmas morning is less than 1% for Edenton NC, and only around 1% at NAS Oceana in Virginia Beach. Head farther north and inland, and Williamsburg is closer to 3 or 4%.
It's worth noting the reporting stations where the data is averaged aren't as complete and don't go back as far as the official records for Norfolk. If you were to factor in more data from the earlier years between the 1890s and 1950s, Williamsburg would likely see higher chances!
Farther north at Wallops Island on the Eastern Shore, and chances are closer to 6% any given year.
Norfolk's White Christmas forecast for 2024 ...
The chances for 2024 aren't looking good right now, but stay tuned to the updated forecasts from the 13News Now weather team, and we'll let you know if anything changes as we approach Christmas Eve!