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With the long stretch of dry days, why are we not officially in drought yet?

It has been 27 days since Norfolk has last seen rain, and we might even be on track to set a new record for the longest dry spell in Hampton Roads.

NORFOLK, Va. — Tuesday, Oct. 29 is the 27th day in a row Norfolk International Airport hasn't had any measurable rainfall. There is a slight chance for a shower or two Friday November 1st, with a passing cold front. But if it doesn't happen then, it will likely remain dry at least until the middle of the following week.

It is possible that a record could be set for most consecutive days without precipitation in Norfolk!

Credit: 13News Now

Despite being about three and a half inches below average for October, and about four and a half inches below since September 1st, right now the US Drought Monitor shows Hampton Roads as only "abnormally dry". The nearest area under "moderate drought" is just north of Virginia's Eastern Shore in Maryland. Most of Virginia and North Carolina is depicted as having ample moisture. What gives?

Credit: 13News Now

The U.S. Drought Monitor is based on a variety of factors, not just "rain in the bucket." In addition to measured precipitation, the USDM considers temperatures, soil moisture, water levels in streams, lakes, reservoirs, and groundwater. During the winter months, updates also factor in snow cover and meltwater runoff. The reports look at drought impacts like water shortages and business interruptions. There is feedback from more than 450 expert observers throughout the country, plus special additional reports from citizens and the media.

Credit: 13News Now

Relying on all of these to produce a convergence of evidence, the US Drought Monitor classifies the entire country into one of six categories: Normal (or wet) conditions, abnormally dry, moderate drought,  severe drought, extreme drought, and exceptional drought. They also differentiate between short-term and long-term drought. 

Short-term drought can impact agriculture and grasslands, and this drought classification can rapidly change. 

Long-term drought has more significant impacts on hydrology and ecology. It can persist even after short-term gains with rain and snow.

For Norfolk, March 2024 was the wettest on record, and July was one of the wettest as well. We had ample ground moisture coming into this recent long stretch of weather. For the calendar year 2024, we are still around 2.3 inches above average.

It is possible that the next US Drought Monitor update will have parts of our region in moderate drought. That report comes out on Halloween. Stay tuned to 13News Now for updates as we follow the situation.

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