NORFOLK, Va. — The National Hurricane Center designated Invest 97-L as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 at 11 a.m. Monday, and the storm has an excellent chance of developing into our next tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.
The designation of a Potential Tropical Cyclone gives us a forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center and also enables watches and warnings. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of Mexico and Cuba.
PTC 9 is currently located in an ideal environment for rapid intensification and is forecast to become a major hurricane (at least a Category 3) before approaching the Big Bend area of Florida later this week. Once the system forms into a tropical storm, it would get the name "Helene."
The National Hurricane Center believes that this storm will make landfall on Thursday.
Residents in the Deep South, especially Florida and Georgia, should continue to keep a close eye on this system as life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and spin-up tornadoes are possible starting on Wednesday.
Global models, as well as higher-resolution hurricane models, are in fairly close agreement about the intensity and timing of what will be Helene.
After the system makes landfall, the models carry the center into the southeast US, and suggest a trough of low pressure will actually draw the system north/northwestward and into the Tennessee River Valley. Below are the most recent spaghetti plots, where each line represents a different computer model. Take note of the remarkable agreement throughout almost the entire forecast period.
Flooding rain will be possible far inland, and southern parts of the Blue Ridge and Smokey Mountains could see heavy rain depending on how the system tracks.
For Hampton Roads, we're expecting increased rain chances for Friday and Saturday from the outermost bands of Helene and the abundance of moisture the system will pull in from the Atlantic.
There is another area of development in the eastern Atlantic that also has a good chance of developing over the coming week. This system looks to snag the "I" name off of the list over the next seven days. The name this year is "Isaac."
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