NORFOLK, Va. — The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues to remain active, just days into the final few weeks.
We now have our 17th named storm, Rafael, in the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to move toward the northwest over the coming days, impacting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands by late Monday going into Tuesday.
As of the 10 p.m. advisory, Rafael has sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 60 mph, and is moving to the NNW at 12 mph.
Rafael is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane on Tuesday, and strengthen a bit more by Wednesday, when it is forecast to make landfall along the southern coast of Cuba.
Tropical Storm warnings are up for the island of Jamaica and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands.
In addition, Tropical Storm and Hurricane watches have been posted for central and western Cuba.
Finally, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys.
Rafael will exit Cuba, making its way into the southern Gulf of Mexico where the environment becomes less favorable for re-strengthening. By later in the day on Thursday, Rafael is expected to weaken back into a tropical storm as it treks its way toward the northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico.
The track keeps Rafael to the west of the Florida peninsula but will still bring rough surf, heavy rain, and gusty winds to portions of the Florida west coast, especially the Florida Keys, as it makes its way into the northern Gulf.
Everyone from Texas to Alabama will need to continue to keep an eye on this system as the track and intensity will likely change over the coming days.
For us here in Hampton Roads, we are not expected to see many effects from the system, other than a few models suggest we may see additional rain showers for next week from the remnants of Rafael next week.
With a little over three weeks left in the season, we have to continue to monitor the tropics as there are still two other areas in the Caribbean Sea that have a chance of developing within the next week.