NORFOLK, Va. — Hurricane season is still underway with 17 days left. The season officially ends on November 30, but we are still seeing activity.
There is an area of interest currently in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The low-pressure system continues to favor more organization in the longer-range models, so it is now an area of high interest. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 70% chance of tropical development within the next seven days.
This time of the year, it is not uncommon to see development in this part of the Caribbean Basin. However, it is relatively rare to see this occur during an El Nino year. Typically, El Nino conditions would promote enhanced wind shear deterring any development in the Caribbean.
This year, despite a strengthening El Nino, we are not seeing enhanced wind shear in the vicinity.
Current water temperatures off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica are bathtub-like in the middle 80s and lower 90s. The warmer water temperatures can contribute to tropical development.
The longer-range models, European and American, favor a track that will move the system toward Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic by the end of this week into the start of this weekend.
If this system does strengthen to earn a name as a tropical storm, it will be Vince.
