NORFOLK, Va. — We’re a week into the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and despite forecasts for a very active season, the tropics remain quiet. In fact, we are off to the slowest start in a decade!
Since 2015, we have had our first named system by the first week of June, and from 2015 through 2021, we have had named storms form before June 1, the official start of hurricane season.
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You have to go back to 2014 for a later start, when that season took the whole month of June off, and our first named storm developed on July 1st.
What is behind the slow start and what does that mean for the rest of the season?
First, we have a large heat dome over Mexico. This hot air sinks, suppressing storm activity snd any storms that did develop encountered strong wind shear around the heat dome that tore them apart.
But a slow start doesn’t mean a slow season!
In fact, the first named storm of the season usually forms in mid-to-late June, so it’s not unusual for the tropics to be this quiet. And most tropical systems form in three months, August, September, and October. That’s when we see the warmest ocean waters in the Atlantic Basin.
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Even the busy 2005 season, which produced 27 named storms, including Hurricane Katrina, didn’t start until Tropical Storm Arlene formed on June 9.
And in 1998, which had the devastating hurricanes Bonnie, Earl, and Mitch didn’t start until July 27.
So, don’t drop your guard with the slow start. Hurricane season is just getting started!