NORFOLK, Va. — Hampton Roads snow lovers have been holding out for a chance, any chance at all, to see flakes flying so far this winter. And tomorrow might be that day.
The timeframe we are looking at for the potential of some wintry weather comes very early Monday morning through Monday evening.
Although the chance is there, we need to manage expectations. Hampton Roads, specifically the Southside, will be hovering right around that freezing line. If temperatures drop to freezing (32°) or below and there's enough moisture in place, snow flurries are likely to develop. If we are just a couple of degrees warmer than freezing, the precipitation would come down as sleet/ice or very cold rain.
At this point, people living on the Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and Peninsula have the best chance of seeing some snowflakes.
The GRAF model has been aggressive in bringing snow as far south as the Southside, with some snow starting as early as 5 a.m. Monday around the Peninsulas. The GFS Model believes that the snow will be confined to the Peninsulas and the Richmond area while the European model has nothing coming down at all on Monday morning.
So there's a wide opinion on what happens tomorrow. By Sunday afternoon, we will get into our shorter range, so then, we can look at higher-resolution models. This should help iron out more details such as how much snow may be possible, if any at all.
Typically, these setups do not favor accumulating snow in Hampton Roads. At this point, any accumulations will be under an inch.
We would also have to take into account the warm ground. Snowfall rates would have to be exceptional to overpower the warm ground and lead to any accumulations on road surfaces. There may be minor accumulations on grassy, raised surfaces with slightly lower snowfall rates.
Our team has higher confidence in plunging temperatures behind this storm by Wednesday. Air temperatures could drop into the low to middle 20s. Winds are forecast to stay gusty, and with air temperatures that low, it means we may be dealing with wind chills in the teens!
Winter certainly looks to arrive in Hampton Roads this week, regardless of the precipitation! Stay tuned to the latest forecast on-air and online.
