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FORECAST: Heavy rain, gusty winds, tidal flooding to end the week

A coastal low will develop along the Carolina coast late Thursday night, bringing increasing winds, rainfall and tides to end the week.

NORFOLK, Va. — After a prolonged dry stretch of weather, we finally saw some rain Sunday night and Monday. Now, a much more potent system is set to bring substantial rainfall to the region. In addition, gusty winds and tidal flooding will likely accompany this storm system. For that reason, Thursday afternoon and Friday morning have been declared Weather Alert Days by the 13News Now Weather Team.

It's been almost 2 months since Hampton Roads experienced a good, soaking rainfall. Well, we've got just that on the way for Thursday into Friday as an upper-level low sparks widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Look for showers to develop from west to east across the area Thursday afternoon, starting off on the lighter side and becoming moderate to heavy at times past sunset. A wet Thursday evening commute can be expected across most of Hampton Roads. The heaviest of the rain looks to move through overnight Thursday into early Friday morning perhaps lending more impacts to the Friday morning commute. 

Credit: 13News Now
Heavy rain, gusty winds, and tidal flooding are possible Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

Clouds will continue to thicken up this evening as a developing low pressure system moves in and strengthens off the Carolina coast. Temperatures will drop after sunset, but it will not be as cold as the last few nights due to the cloud cover. overnight lows will be in the middle-to-upper 40s.

Throughout Thursday, a coastal low will strengthen off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina. Rain showers will roll in by late Thursday morning, continuing until midday Friday. This will bring some beneficial rain to the area. Rainfall amounts now appear to range between 1 to 2 inches, with isolated higher amounts. While no major issues with flooding are expected, runoff could pool along roadways and in dry ditches. 

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Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated higher amounts possible Thursday into Friday.

In addition to the rainfall, winds will increase along the coast as the storm strengthens. This will bring sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph, possibly close to 30 mph into Friday. 

Finally, moderate tidal flooding is possible across much of the area on Friday. Astronomical tides increase later this week with the approach of the next full moon. Meanwhile, strong northeast winds from the coastal low will cause tide levels to be even higher. 

Credit: WVEC

Highs temperatures Thursday will be in the lower 60s along the coast, with upper 50s inland. 

Credit: 13News Now
Thursday's hour-by-hour forecast.

Once this system moves away by late Friday, high pressure will move back in place, giving us a very nice weekend.

The extended forecast will feature drier weather with a slow warming trend, starting Saturday and continuing into early next week. 

High temperatures will be in the 60s this weekend and around 70° early next week.

Credit: 13News Now
Seven-day forecast for coastal Virginia and North Carolina.

In the Tropics...

Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 is a broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea. It continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.  Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.  

The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and 
northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. Heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so. 

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow morning.

Once we get a good fix on the storm from the Hurricane Hunters, we'll have a better idea of where the system will go next. Right now, it looks like this system will likely become Tropical Storm Sara in a couple of days, eventually becoming a hurricane. With relatively low wind shear and warm waters in the Caribbean, intensification is likely. This system could eventually, in about a week, pose a threat to the United States.

Credit: WVEC

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