AccuWeather meteorologists are putting parts of Central America, Mexico and the United States on alert for a tropical system expected to develop in the Caribbean Sea late this week.
As of Wednesday morning, the tropical low was situated over the center of the Caribbean Sea, approximately 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and moving westward at about 17 mph (27 km/h).
"This system is still rather disorganized, but is heading toward an area favorable for tropical development, so chances for development remain high," said Lead Tropical Forecaster and Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
An environment favorable for tropical development often includes warm waters and weak wind shear, or the change of wind direction as you go up in the atmosphere, both of which are expected to be present in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras through the end of the week.
As the system continues westward and approaches Central America, it may slow down enough to strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm later this week.
The next names on the list for tropical storms for the basin in 2020 are Laura and Marco, which may both emerge in the Atlantic basin by this weekend as another tropical threat is churning east of the Leeward Islands.
No matter how strong the tropical system becomes, tropical moisture is forecast to stream into northern parts of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
As the system approaches, the tropical moisture that accompanies it will enhance showers and thunderstorms across parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico. In these areas, rounds of downpours could quickly bring as much as 100-200 mm (2-4 inches) of rainfall in just a few hours, and with that will bring the risk for flash flooding.
The heaviest downpours are expected across northern Honduras through Belize and the eastern Yucatan into the weekend.
The mountainous portions of the region will be particularly susceptible to some of the highest rainfall totals. With a lot of rain in just a bit of time, the ground will become saturated and unstable quite quickly, leading to the risk for mudslides.
Damaging winds are also expected if the system attains tropical-storm strength. Exposed windward locations like coastal areas around and north of the center of the storm will be mostly likely to be impacted by destructive onshore winds. Should the storm remain stronger, these areas could also experience coastal flooding.
The complexity of the weather pattern over North America and the Gulf of Mexico means the final track of this tropical system late on Friday through the weekend is still somewhat uncertain.
A dip in the jet stream that is forecast to extend into the Gulf of Mexico may help steer the system Friday and through the weekend.
If the jet stream pulls this tropical feature northward enough, its torrential downpours and gusty thunderstorms could be pulled through Belize the Yucatan Peninsula before re-emerging over water in the Gulf of Mexico. This trajectory could even bring the tropical system toward northeastern Mexico and the western Gulf Coast of the U.S.
If the storm strengthens more quickly, and the dip in the jet stream is not as extreme, the tropical system may just continue to move westward and dissipate over the mountainous terrain or reach the waters of the East Pacific Ocean.
As a result, all interests from Honduras, Belize, Mexico and the southern U.S. should monitor tropical activity currently over the Atlantic basin.
In addition to this tropical system, another area east of the Leeward Islands is churning through another favorable location for tropical development that could threaten the eastern Caribbean and eastern U.S. into next week.
"The lid could soon come off the Atlantic basin with the potential for multiple named systems spinning at the same time, including multiple threats to lives and property at the same time from the Caribbean to North America," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Due to 2020s record pace and upcoming conditions expected in the basin, AccuWeather meteorologists upped their forecast for the number of tropical storms in late July, with up to 24 now predicted and up to 11 hurricanes projected for the season.