NORFOLK, Va. — As we get closer to the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, the forecast is getting clearer.
“Educational institutions, private forecasting companies, and governments even, release outlooks,” said 13News Now Chief Meteorologist Tim Pandajis.
Pandajis says many of the current forecasts suggest 2024 will be an active, even hyperactive season for the Atlantic.
Colorado State University is predicting 23 named storms. As a comparison, from 1991 to 2020, we saw an average of 14 storms a season.
He added that several factors give us an idea of how active hurricane season will be, even weeks or months out.
The first is sea surface temperature, or how warm the ocean is.
“There is a part of the Atlantic called the main development region, and back in February and March water temperatures in that area were in line with where they should be in July,” said Pandajis.
Then there’s the state of ENSO, which refers to the El Niño, La Niña or neutral pattern.
Last year, we had a robust El Niño cycle. This year, it’s shifting away from that.
“The forecast is for a La Niña, and that would lead to lower wind shear, and [storms] can grow and build pretty much unchecked.”
But this perfect recipe for an active season doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect the worst when it comes to landfall here on the coast.
“Steering patterns are another ingredient,” said Pandajis. “The big player in what steers storms toward the U.S. for landfall would be the strength of the Bermuda high or Azores high, which is a big area of high pressure sitting in the central Atlantic.”
Pandajis says steering patterns usually become more relevant once a storm develops, so it's too early to say how they play into our outlook for landfall.
When is hurricane season 2024?
June 1 marks the beginning of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Although the official start is in June, 15 tropical cyclones have developed before that date since 2003. The majority of those happened in May, with two recorded in April — Ana in 2003 and Arlene in 2017.
Although there are a few more weeks before the season officially begins, it's not a bad idea to start preparing.