NORFOLK, Va. — After two years of political stalemate in a divided Virginia General Assembly, Gov. Glenn Youngkin is pushing for a Republican sweep in the state's November elections, which would pave the way for major policy changes on hot-button issues.
Virginia's Democrat-controlled Senate and Republican-controlled House of Delegates have struggled to meet in the middle on high-priority issues, such as the state budget, since Youngkin took office in January 2022.
While the governor has signed some bipartisan legislation and used executive action to advance some of his priorities for the state, the split legislature has stymied what he has been able to do in office. This is especially so in contrast to other Republican governors who have passed sweeping conservative legislation in their states, according to J. Miles Coleman, the associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the UVA Center of Politics.
Sabato's Crystal Ball, a prominent election forecaster, is one source 13News Now tapped into for insight into the upcoming elections. The other expert 13News Now interviewed was Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, the Research Lab Director for The Wason Center at Christopher Newport University, which is known for survey research and nonpartisan analysis around politics in the Commonwealth.
With just two years left in his term as governor, Coleman and Bromley-Trujillo say Youngkin needs Republican control of both chambers of the General Assembly to push forward his conservative agenda.
"If the Republicans are in full control, then in terms of our legislative and political agenda in Virginia, we may start looking more like a Florida or a Texas," Coleman said.
Here are three areas where Virginians could see major changes to state law if the November 7 elections result in total party control for Republicans.
15-week abortion ban likely in Virginia if Republicans win majority
Abortion, in particular, has become more of a hot-button issue nationwide since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a decision that allowed states to enact restrictions on the procedure. Several states have enacted bans since the court's ruling in June 2022.
Both Coleman and Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo with the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University said the issue would take center stage if Republicans won a majority in both chambers of the General Assembly.
"We would likely see an approach toward that 15-week ban on abortion with some exceptions that Gov. Youngkin has highlighted," Bromley-Trujillo told 13News Now in an interview.
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Virginia, the last Southern state without a ban, allows abortion during the first and second trimesters, but procedures may be done during the third trimester unless the pregnant person's health is in danger. When Democrats were last in power, they lifted some restrictions, including a mandatory ultrasound law and a 24-hour waiting period prior to the procedure.
While Youngkin has pushed for a ban, he has said he wants exceptions for rape, incest and saving the life of the pregnant person. He's advocated for this as a middle ground that Virginians can get behind. But the effort hasn't seen much headway in the current General Assembly.
In January, the Senate defeated several bills that would have restricted abortion access in the state, including Youngkin's proposed ban. Before the 2023 General Assembly session began, Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert admitted that movement on the issue wasn't likely this year because of Democratic opposition.
"Gov. Youngkin has framed a 15-week ban as sort of a reasonable position," Coleman said. "And a lot of Democrats have said, 'Okay, well, that's what you say now, but if Republicans have what we call the trifecta — which is the governorship and both chambers of the legislature — maybe Republicans would go even further if they're able to.'"
Virginia climate change initiatives could be on chopping block
Bromley-Trujillo said Republicans could also target climate change regulations that Democrats passed when they had party control of the state, such as the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) and the Clean Cars law.
The VCEA requires Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power, to move to 100% carbon-free energy production by 2045 and 2050, respectively. The Clean Cars law ties Virginia to California's vehicle emission standards, leading to the phase-out of sales of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035.
"I'd also say the environment is an area that we're not seeing a lot of discussion about," Bromley-Trujillo said. "But absolutely we would see some changes."
When it comes to energy policy, Youngkin promoted an "all-of-the-above" approach comprised of natural gas, nuclear and renewables, instead of mandating a transition to entirely clean energy, which he claims is raising the cost of living for Virginians. His administration has criticized the VCEA, and the House passed a bill to repeal the law, but it died in a Senate committee.
Youngkin and Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares have also called for repealing the Clean Cars law, both of them arguing that another state shouldn't dictate what Virginia does. In January, Virginia Senate Democrats defeated several bills that would have repealed the law.
Republican control could also lead to legislative action on withdrawing Virginia from RGGI, an auction-based carbon emissions reduction program alongside 10 other East Coast states. The Youngkin administration is facing a legal challenge for leaving the program via a regulatory process through the Virginia Air Pollution Control Board, a move that Democrats and environmental advocates say is illegal without legislation from state lawmakers.
Virginia gun laws could loosen, but harsher penalties for gun crimes are possible
A number of Virginia's gun restrictions could also be nixed under Republican control, just a few years after Democrats passed sweeping changes to the state's laws in an effort to address gun violence.
Youngkin's predecessor, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam, signed several gun control bills into law in 2020, including universal background checks on purchases, a red flag bill allowing authorities to temporarily take guns away from people deemed dangerous to themselves or others and a limit of one handgun purchase a month.
The laws came after 12 people were killed and four were injured in a mass shooting at the Virginia Beach Municipal Center on May 31, 2019.
Youngkin has said that he believes Virginia's gun laws are some of the strictest in the country and that there are other solutions to address violence. While he's been in office, Republicans have unsuccessfully tried to loosen them, while Democrats have pushed for further restrictions.
For example, in 2022, the House passed a bill to repeal the red flag law, but it died in a Senate committee.
Earlier this year, the Senate passed a range of new gun restrictions, including a ban on assault-style weapons. Still, Republicans in a House committee defeated the bills. These bills came after two shootings in November 2022, one at the University of Virginia that left three football players dead, and the other at a Walmart store in Chesapeake that left seven people dead.
To address gun violence, Youngkin has said that he supports increased investments in treating mental health problems, as well as stricter penalties for crimes committed with guns. In June, he signed several bills aimed at expanding behavioral health services for Virginians, one of which requires health insurance carriers to provide coverage for mobile crisis response services.