NORFOLK, Va. — The high-profile Virginia elections are in just a few weeks, and all lawmaking seats will be decided. Ahead of the vote, a new report illustrates an increase in Virginia's abortion numbers since the Dobbs vs. Jackson Supreme Court ruling in 2022.
The report is a product of the Society of Family Planning, an organization that supports "abortion and contraception science," according to its website.
The data tracks estimated abortion numbers from April 2022 through June 2023 across all 50 states.
In Virginia, the report estimates the average number of monthly abortions having increased by roughly 550 when comparing months before and after the Supreme Court decision. An estimated 2,100 abortions in April of 2022 increased to approximately 3,100 in June of 2023, accounting for a roughly 50% increase over that 15-month period.
Simultaneously, states that have since imposed abortion bans or restrictions have seen their numbers decline since the ruling.
A recent poll by the University of Mary Washington found that abortion is a "major factor" for 53% of Virginia voters; when included as a "minor factor" it makes up roughly three out of every four Virginians.
Here are the estimated numbers for Virginia:
- 22-Apr | 2,160
- 22-May | 2,210
- 22-Jul | 2,400
- 22-Jul | 2,650
- 22-Aug | 2,380
- 22-Sep | 2,410
- 22-Oct | 2,500
- 22-Nov | 2,160
- 22-Dec | 2,260
- 23-Jan | 3,160
- 23-Feb | 2,870
- 23-Mar | 3,100
- 23-Apr | 3,170
- 23-May | 3,080
- 23-Jun | 3,120
In its methodology, researchers noted "imputations" to account for clinics that did not participate in SFP's data gathering.
Dr. Ushma Upadhyay, one of the report's co-chairs, told 13News Now that the Virginia section is lacking data from six large providers (non-hospitals) and some small hospitals. However, the published data still accounts for roughly 70% of accounted-for abortions in the state. Researchers applied the same "rate of change" to take the place of those unaccounted for sources.
Olivia Gans Turner, with the Virginia Society for Human Life, questioned the methodology behind the report, calling it "not accurate or data driven."
“The assumption they make is, ‘There must be more abortions being made, so we’ll round up,'" she told 13News Now.
"There is a misunderstanding about what do pro-life advocates actually want if we get a majority in the General Assembly? Protective, reasonable, compassionate laws passed," she added.
Jamie Lockhart, Executive Director of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia, says the report reaffirms trends they've seen in Virginia, citing an increase from 2% to 20% for out-of-state patients at the Virginia League of Planned Parenthood.
“We know that people are going to travel to access healthcare if they can, that’s what we’re seeing. They’re travelling and leaving places they can’t access it," Lockhart said.
Gans Turner cited the Guttmacher Institute as a source more trusted by pro-life advocates. Their reporting indicates abortion numbers (through formal U.S. health systems) has increased by 60% in Virginia since January 2020.