CHESAPEAKE, Va. — Former President Donald Trump has chosen Chesapeake as the site for his first campaign event following the first presidential debate onThursday.
13News Now spoke with two political analysts to break down the decision behind why the former President chose a region he hasn't officially visited in years as his first stop following the debate: Jesse Richman, an associate professor of political science at Old Dominion University and Leslie Caughell, associate professor of political science at Virginia Wesleyan University.
How does Virginia's billing as a "purple" state, set the table for the 2024 presidential election?
Jesse Richman: "The state of Virginia was not considered a swing state until about 2008 when Barack Obama won it. A Democrat for the first tie in a long time, then Democrats kept winning the state at a presidential level, so 2012, 2016. And for margins — Biden beat Trump by a quite substantial margin in 2020. State of Virginia was at one point until the recent polls — Roanoke College and Fox News polls — seen by a lot of people having drifted out of swing state status toward being a bit more lean Democratic state, but those polls got the Trump campaign's attention. The Trump campaign seems to be gearing up to make a play for Virginia. He's talking about opening a dozen campaign offices across the state, to build a ground game. The Republican party demonstrated in recent years, they can both win and lose Virginia’s elections. Governor Glenn Youngkin was able to win and carried into office with him the other state-wide offices.
"It remains a state where republicans can win if they mount a successful campaign and circumstances are favorable.”
Leslie Caughell: In my opinion, the state leans blue. I’ve seen the recent polling saying President Biden and Trump are tied, but to me, it’s noticeable that the number they’re both polling is at 42 percent. Neither candidate shows great majority support in the state, but Trump’s unfavourability rating is consistently high, like 55 percent. I can’t imagine these polls indicate he’s competitive in the state.
From my perspective, they indicate Biden is weaker in a Democratic-leaning state than if you were a Democratic strategist than you would want the President to be. If he’s polling poorly in a state like Virginia, then states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he may not be doing particularly well.”
How much should we read into the campaign choosing Chesapeake specifically to host the first event after the first debate?
JR: “One should be careful to read too much into it. but I think what it does say, the Trump campaign wants to put a marker down that they want to contest Virginia. And this a way to put the exclamation mark on it. If Trump has a good first debate, then Virginia is very much in play. If it goes poorly, Virginia maybe slips out of reach.”
"Part of the strategy is you invest resources to make the state in play. That forces the Biden campaign to have to pivot where they didn’t think they’d have to spend many resources.”
LC: "The other thing this indicates to me is that the Trump campaign is going to use Virginia as a way to siphon some resources from the Biden campaign away from battleground states that are much more competitive. Force the campaign to spend more time and resources there. Making them to work to win the state, in a way that shifts focus and attention and some resources from the states that the Biden campaign is really looking at as necessary for election for 2024.
"As part of the national debate, the idea that Biden is weak in a Democratic-leaning state is something we’ll hear this week. Virginia is battleground state, but he [Biden] carried it by 10 points [2020]. Even if Trump's campaign doesn’t win the state, which I think is unlikely, it’s a way to poke at the Biden campaign and draw attention to those weak spots.”
Governor Glenn Youngkin campaigned on and has tried to establish that he is not a "MAGA" candidate. However, he has now endorsed former President Trump and there are reports that he will attend the event. Will he be able to thread the needle, so to speak, moving forward?
JR: “Youngkin has been able to thread a balancing act with his relationship with Trump. So I think we will see if he maintains it. In the gubernatorial race, he basically out-sourced the project of ‘making sure the MAGA base knows he’s a Trump guy’ to his opponent trying to make that argument. So he didn’t have to do it. How do you manage that? As Youngkin, he does not want to be seen as anti-Trump when he’s the nominee and he has ambitions of other elected offices. It furnishes his reputation moving forward if he helps Trump win Virginia. He did not help Republicans succeed in helping them win the state legislature in 2023. That sting might be softened a bit if he can see Trump through in Virginia.
"The judgment seems to be, it’s worthwhile to get a bit closer to Trump here. That’s potentially a recognition of Trump’s influence in the party.”
LC: “I don’t think it was ever possible. You can see what he was trying to do, there was a reason why he was trying to do it, Virginia is more moderate than more Republican states where embracing Trump would have been an asset like South Dakota. But the Trump coalition is not one hospitable to establishment Republicans and old-school ideologies.
“To the extent that Youngkin has aspirations for a future in politics, it’s become clear that the Republican party is the party of President Trump. They’re one in the same. A moderate, middle ground is just not going to get anyone through a presidential primary.
"He [Youngkin] is trying to play a more moderate politics that include voters who voted Democratic in the past. What makes it difficult for Trump to win Virginia, is that he’s been losing voters with higher levels of education and women in the suburbs. Those are exactly the voters Youngkin relied on in his coalition to win his elections.