VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. — Republican State Sen. Jen Kiggans is slightly favored to win the House race in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, according to a prediction from a prominent election forecaster from Virginia.
Sabato's Crystal Ball, based out of the University of Virginia, moved its ranking of the district from "tossup" to "Leans Republican," a good sign for Republicans looking to defeat Democratic incumbent Elaine Luria.
The shift for Virginia's 2nd District was one of several last-minute changes that the election forecaster made prior to Election Day, predominately in the direction of Republicans.
"Democrats never truly seemed to be in serious contention to hold the House — the amount of defense they have had to play is just too daunting, and they have been hampered by a number of open seats," the forecaster wrote on Monday. "A considerable number of them are in the Leans Republican column now.
The Crystal Ball authors noted that Virginia's elections, including in the 2nd District, will be a good indicator of the House races nationwide.
"Rep. Elaine Luria (D, VA-2), who holds a very marginal Hampton Roads seat, is an underdog; if she somehow wins, something may be going haywire for Republicans," the forecasters wrote.
This election has been widely seen as an uphill battle for Luria because of President Joe Biden's low approval ratings and the redistricting process making Virginia's 2nd District more Republican than before.
The district is comprised of Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk and Franklin, along with Southampton, Isle of Wight, Northampton and Accomack Counties. The most notable change is that the heavily Democratic Norfolk was moved to Virginia's 3rd District.
Despite the odds, Luria has significantly outraised Kiggans and kept the race in a dead heat.
A poll from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University showed the two candidates tied at 45% support. During 2022's third quarter, Luria pulled in $2.85 million, while Kiggans pulled in more than $1 million.
J. Miles Coleman, an associate editor of the Crystal Ball, attributed the shift to the district's history of swinging between Democrats and Republicans.
"I'd say that Luria hasn't necessarily done anything wrong as an incumbent, it's just the type of marginal district that Republicans should be able to pick if they take the House," Coleman wrote.
He added that the Crystal Ball factored the national environment, which is favoring the Republicans, in its prediction shift, despite the close polling.
"If Luria ends up holding up, on the other hand, it'll be a good sign that Dems may beat expectations," Coleman wrote.