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Elaine Luria, Jen Kiggans deadlocked at 45% in House race, CNU poll finds

The results show that Virginia's 2nd District continues to be hotly contested, following forecasters' monthslong prediction of a political tossup.

NEWPORT NEWS, Va. — A new poll released Friday from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University shows the race for the U.S. House seat in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District is as tight as ever.

Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, who is seeking a third term, and Republican challenger Jen Kiggans are deadlocked at 45% among likely voters. The poll says 8% of voters are undecided.

RELATED: Luria vs. Kiggans: Virginia 2nd Congressional District race a 'toss-up'

The center conducted the poll between Oct. 12 and 18, interviewing 820 registered voters in Virginia's 2nd District who are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The margin of error is 3.9%.

Poll results for Elaine Luria, Jen Kiggans

Luria edged out Kiggans with the independent vote, 46 to 43%, but Kiggans has slightly more support from her own party compared to Luria's (92 to 90%).

While both candidates are deadlocked, Republicans that were polled are somewhat more motivated to vote than Democrats and independents.

76% of Republicans said they are paying "a lot of attention" to the 2022 congressional elections, compared to 60% of Democrats and 51% of independents.

With early voting in Virginia underway, 12% of those polled already cast their ballots, and Luria leads among them 56-29%.

What issues are important in District 2?

When it comes to the key issues, 39% of those polled said the economy was top of mind, 17% said abortion and 14% said threats to democracy.

These issues vary by party affiliation, with Republicans coming together on inflation and the economy at 61%. About 9% of Republicans chose the abortion issue; and immigration, crime and threats to democracy all tied at 6% each.

For Democrats, 31% said abortion was the top issue, followed by threats to democracy at 23% and inflation and the economy at 16%.

A majority of independents picked inflation and the economy as the top issue at 40%, followed by threats to democracy at 14% and abortion at 13%.

When asked about the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed constitutional protections for abortion, 47% said it was a major factor in their vote choice, 18% said it was minor and 15% said it wasn't a factor.

These answers also differed by party affiliation and other groups of people.

78% of Democrats, 54% of women and 68% of Black likely voters indicated abortion was a major factor, compared to 22% of Republicans, 40% of men and 42% of white voters.

Independents were split, with 42% saying abortion was a major factor, 18% calling it a minor factor and 40% saying it wasn't a factor.

On the issue of inflation, 66% of those polled said it was a major factor in their vote choice, 18% said it was minor and 15% said it wasn't a factor. 

Again, there's a party affiliation gap, with 94% of Republicans saying inflation is a major factor, compared to 44% of Democrats and 65% of independents.

President Joe Biden, Gov. Glenn Youngkin play role in midterm election

The poll also asked likely voters within Virginia's 2nd District what they thought about President Joe Biden and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

41% said they approve of Biden’s job performance, while 55% disapprove. Youngkin has a 56% approval and 34% disapproval, while 10% don't know what they think.

Despite voters' thoughts on Biden, 45% said he wasn't much of a factor in their candidate choice, while 34% said they saw their choice as a vote against Biden and 18% said their choice is a vote for Biden.

The number is even higher among independents, of which 62% said Biden wasn't a factor in thier candidate choice.

The Wason Center's Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo said that the seat still appears to be highly competitive, despite the redrawing of Virginia's 2nd District bringing more Republican voters.

“If this were a typical midterm election year, this district would likely favor the Republican candidate, especially given an unpopular sitting Democratic President and high inflation," Bromley-Trujillo wrote in the poll's analysis. "Abortion and concern over threats to democracy appear to have energized Democrats and bolstered support for incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria."

Elaine Luria, Jen Kiggans respond to results

After the Wason Center released the poll results, Luria's spokesperson Jayce Genco shared a statement expressing confidence that she'll win the election in Virginia's 2nd District.

"Congresswoman Luria is confident she will win this close race based on her record of delivering for Coastal Virginia by cutting costs for working families, expanding health care for veterans, protecting a woman’s right to choose, and securing billions in defense investments to stand up to China," Genco wrote.

Kiggans' spokesperson Bryan Piligra said in a statement the poll shows that her messaging is resonating with voters and her momentum is growing, after 18 months of campaigning in Virginia's 2nd District.

"Come November 9th, Coastal Virginians will have elected a Congresswoman in Jen Kiggans, who will fight for lower taxes, stronger law enforcement, safer communities, a solid education system and a strong military," Piligra wrote.

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