NORFOLK, Va. — President Joe Biden's decision to bow out of the presidential race may not guarantee a victory for Democrats in the upcoming election.
That's according to the 15th annual Life in Hampton Roads Survey conducted by Old Dominion University's Social Science Research Center.
"The presidential race is very much in play," said Dr. Jesse Richman, ODU associate professor of political science. "If you support a particular candidate, do what you can to help them win. If you haven't made up your mind yet, well, your vote might matter."
Each year, the survey aims to capture residents' views on quality of life in the region.
Part of the survey delved into the commonwealth's political landscape. While more people leaned toward the Democratic Party than the Republican Party (25.5% vs. 19.8%), findings suggest fewer Virginians overall are identifying with major political parties. 38.3% are now calling themselves independent, showing a trend away from party loyalty since 2020.
"This reflects the challenges for both political parties, I think, in terms of persuading people that their party has the right vision for the future," Dr. Richman said.
Surveyors conducted 640 phone interviews of Hampton Roads residents between June 4 and August 16, running into complications with polling questions when President Biden withdrew from the presidential race on July 21.
"We changed [the polling question] to 'Donald Trump or the Democratic candidate' because we didn't know who that was going to be," Dr. Richman said. "And then, Kamala Harris was confirmed as the Democratic candidate. So, we modified the question the third time to have it be 'Donald Trump or Kamala Harris'."
The combined data shows that whether it's President Biden or Vice President Harris running, the Democratic candidate gets 56% of the two-party vote in the region, while former President Trump gets 43.8%. This is consistent with a suggested close race statewide.
"I would advocate that the candidates spend some time in Virginia, and they really introduce themselves to Virginia voters and invest some campaign resources in the state," Dr. Richman said.
However, after President Biden dropped out, survey responses indicated a worse outcome for Democrats. Former President Trump was polling at 42.6% before President Biden's withdrawal, but his support jumped to 45.2% afterward.
Dr. Richman said a question was also added to the last 237 surveys to give people a chance to weigh in on President Biden's decision to withdraw from the race.
"82% said they supported it," Dr. Richman said. "Only 4% did not support it... Mostly, those were Republicans. I think, maybe, there were hoping that they would have an easier contest for Donald Trump than harder, with a wounded Biden candidacy continuing."
When asked about the U.S. Senate race, 61% who supported a major party said they'd vote for the Democratic candidate, while 39% sided with the Republican candidate. Respondents indicated incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is poised to win both Hampton Roads and Virginia over Republican challenger Hung Cao, though by a smaller margin than in his 2018 race.
"39.4% said they, if the election was held today, they would vote for the Democratic candidate. Only 25% for the Republican candidate," Dr. Richman said. "And so, this suggests Senator Kaine's in a pretty comfortable lead in the region in terms of his level of support."
The survey also found more than 80% of people polled were satisfied with election security at their polling place. Less than 5% reported feeling intimidated there in the past ten years.
ODU intended to release results from the political section of the survey ahead of the November election. Click here to read the full Politics & Political Opinions Report.
The rest of the survey, which addresses topics like the economy, education, and health, will be released in the coming months.