WILLIAMSBURG, Va. — Many Americans still have a lot of questions about the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. A panel of William & Mary professors and alumni answered some Tuesday night.
One professor called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a benchmark event in history, one that most certainly will shape our lives moving forward.
Lincoln Zaleski has studied Russian state media and the country's disinformation campaign over the last six years.
He said two false narratives were driven to try and gain support for this invasion: One, Ukraine is controlled by far-right fascists, and two, Russian speakers are under attack in Ukraine.
"The Russians have largely spent six years building a campaign that hasn’t managed to change any support at all," Zaleski said.
He said the campaign failed largely because Ukrainians have high media literacy and are able to spot disinformation. The narratives ultimately were not believable enough to warrant needing Russian intervention.
Steve Hanson, an expert in Russian and Soviet history, said this unprovoked attack on Ukrainian democracy has already caused mass casualties and refugees fleeing the country.
"The stakes could not possibly be higher for the things that we are now experiencing as we speak. As we sit here tonight, this war is taking a turn, unfortunately, that could be extremely damaging."
Hanson says there is a danger of the conflict escalating to an open war between NATO and nuclear Russia.
"It’s pretty clear what Putin wants is the old, mythical, Russian empire. I say mythical because his version of Russian history is, I think the historians in the room agree, are convoluted and taken from nationalist's playbooks that don't have a lot of fact."
However, he said Putin already has made critical mistakes carrying out the invasion, such as underestimating Ukraine’s will to fight and the West’s solidarity with NATO.
"These are different kinds of sanctions and they are hitting very very hard at every level of Russian society," said Hanson.
There are four likely scenarios for how this ends, according to Hanson.
Ukraine wins, a long and bloody war with Russia victorious, defections among high-ranking Russians, or popular uprisings in Russia.
"The key to Western success then in any of these scenarios is for us to remember why we’re able to contain this at all and that is the solidarity that the entire West has shown."
Co-Director of the Project on Peace and International Security Amy Oakes is concerned that if war and crippling sanctions drag on, America’s credibility could be weakened.
"Sanctions are essentially a game of chicken. Who is gonna give up first? For whom are the costs going to be too high that they’re going to make concessions?"
As for how this all ends, both Oakes and Hanson agree that Putin likely won’t be the first to make concessions or settle for anything less than what he wants.