OAKLAND – After a rough West Coast swing that saw them drop two series to division rivals, the Houston Astros have a chance to recover with a 10-game homestand that begins Monday against the American League’s worst team in the 7-18 Minnesota Twins.
Then again, the Astros are just a game better at 8-17.
The bumpy start to the season has been as unexpected as the Astros’ playoff run last year. After eight consecutive losing seasons, they won over converts in 2015 by keeping a five-month stranglehold on first place in the AL West before settling for a wild-card entry into the postseason, then pushing the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals to the limit in the Division Series.
No less than a continuation of such progress figured to follow this year, and with emerging superstar Carlos Correa and multi-tool outfielder George Springer available for a whole season, Houston became a darling of the preseason forecasters.
Their predictions of a return to the playoffs may yet prove accurate, but first the Astros will have to reverse some troubling trends from a 7-17 April. Houston finished the month with the league’s worst ERA at 4.97 – both the starters (5.10) and relievers (4.75) ranked last in that department – and the strikeout-prone offense was unable to make up for such dismal pitching.
“Hopefully this early part of May we’ll see a little transformation and get back to the brand of baseball we played last year,’’ said staff ace Dallas Keuchel, who watched his teammates avoid a sweep with a 2-1 victory Sunday over the Oakland Athletics, closing the Astros’ trip at 2-4.
Even that win, Houston’s third in its last 12 games, failed to inspire thoughts of a juggernaut. The Astros managed only two hits, none after the first batter of the third inning, and held on thanks to 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball by Doug Fister and fine work by the bullpen.
Though Fister said he senses the starters are beginning to get into a groove – they held Oakland to five runs in 18 2/3 innings over the weekend – it will take more such performances to lift the Astros to the break-even mark, let alone to the division’s upper echelon.
Keuchel, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, and Collin McHugh combined to go 39-15 while enjoying breakout seasons last year. They’re each 2-3 so far in 2016, and Keuchel’s 4.41 ERA only looks good in comparison to McHugh’s 6.65.
Moreover, the club has played sloppily at times and has yet to win as many as two games in a row. Keuchel will take the mound Monday against the Twins with that modest goal in mind.
“The way the American League is this year, if you do give an extra out or if you do give extra bases, it comes back to bite you,’’ manager A.J. Hinch said. “It’s been that way for us. We’ve made enough mistakes, and enough mistakes have burned us, to create an uphill battle now to get back to where we need to get.’’
Although he's only 21, Correa will be counted on to lead them back into the winning ranks. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft earned that kind of respect during his AL rookie of the year season in 2015, when he topped all major league shortstops with 22 homers in just 99 games.
Correa blasted three more home runs in this season’s first two games, but has yet to go deep since then, a stretch of 22 games. A healthy on-base percentage of .379 and 15 walks indicate Correa has maintained his plate discipline even as his batting average has dipped to .264, but he’s also striking out once every 4.48 plate appearances, compared to once every 5.54 last year.
That's only part of the reason the Astros are averaging just 3.75 runs a game headed into Sunday, 21st in the league. Much of the blame lies in their .200 batting average with runners in scoring position, second-worst in the AL, and their inability to put the ball in play (a league-high 246 strikeouts). In addition, the bottom of the order has become a wasteland, with the likes of Preston Tucker, Luis Valbuena and Jason Castro all batting below .200.
But Correa recognizes that to whom much is given, much will be required.
“There’s a lot on my shoulders, being the third-place hitter, and I just focus on doing my job,’’ said Correa, whose nine RBI tie him for sixth among AL shortstops. “The first month wasn’t good. It wasn’t bad either, but it wasn’t what I would want.’’
Correa believes the Astros need to do a better job of picking each other up, such as a pitcher inducing a double-play grounder after a fielder makes an error, or the offense delivering in the clutch to bail out a pitcher having a tough game.
“We haven’t done that,’’ he said. “We make an error and everybody gets down, or we fail to bring in a runner in scoring position with less than two outs and everybody gets down. Baseball is more than that. You have to get through those tough moments and help each other so we can win.’’
Given the talent level on the roster, there’s every reason to believe the Astros will get untracked soon, perhaps this week, when they face rookie starters in their first two games against Minnesota. They certainly have an outstanding catalyst in Jose Altuve, who has already led off four games with a home run this season.
And after improving by 16 wins last year, the Astros are not going to let one bad month diminish their swagger, even if their "Club Astros" celebrations are considerably less frequent than in 2015.
“We have a good team. We’re going to hold our chests out,’’ Hinch said. “We’re going to have to be dealt with by a lot of teams. Certainly we haven’t put ourselves in a terrific position at the end of April, but that’s why it’s a six-month season and not a one-month trial."
