NORFOLK, Va. — In recent presidential elections, the candidates haven't spent much time in Virginia as the state has leaned more on the blue side.
But once upon a time, the Commonwealth was a key battleground state after being reliably red. Before Barack Obama turned Virginia blue in 2008, it hadn't picked a Democratic president since 1964 when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater.
ODU Associate Professor of Political Science Dr. Benjamin Melusky says the political change was years in the making. First, the state experienced a population boom since the 90's. Second, there have been significant demographic changes largely in Northern Virginia.
"Demographics changes, in terms of who is voting. So today, we're seeing about one in ten eligible voters in the state are born outside United States--that's up from about one in 28 back in 1990. Further, the Commonwealth is less than white today."
The last six presidential elections show how support for the GOP candidates has waned. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by ten percentage points. The last time a GOP candidate won in the state was George W. Bush who defeated John Kerry by 8.2 percentage points in 2004.
Melusky thinks the state still leans blue but that doesn't mean the GOP doesn't have opportunities. "There is still a large GOP red streak that exists in the Commonwealth. We saw Governor Youngkin win in 2021."
Visits to Hampton Roads by Donald Trump Friday and First Lady Jill Biden the day before could signal both campaigns think Virginia could return to being a battleground.
Melusky thinks it's too early to tell.
"Right now the polling is very close in the Commonwealth, anywhere between I've seen plus four for Biden, plus one for Biden to a dead heat between the two, so it's close."