NORFOLK, Va. — A recent survey of Hampton Roads residents shows evidence that President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race may not have been helpful for Democrats' chances of victory in the upcoming election.
That, and a dip in Virginians' identification with major political parties were among the findings of the survey.
Every year, Old Dominion University's Social Science Research Center collects data by conducting the Life in Hampton Roads (LIHR) survey, which takes a look at residents' perceptions of the quality of life in Hampton Roads as well as other topics of interest like perceptions of police, the economy, education, health and politics.
With 2024 being a major election year, the 15th annual LIHR survey included several questions about Virginians' political attitudes. The results of those questions are being released ahead of the November election, while the rest of the survey results will be released in the coming months.
The political section of the survey focused on four topics including baseline party identification and ideology, the Senate race, the presidential election, and election security.
640 telephone surveys were completed between June 4 and Aug. 16.
Baseline Party Identification and Ideology
25.5% of respondents identified with the Democratic party whereas 19.8% leaned towards the Republican party. Overall, the results showed a downward trend in overall party identification when compared to previous years. Most respondents identified as independent voters at 38.3%.
“The survey wrapped up just as the Democratic Party was making a major play for independent voters with the Democratic National Convention,” said Jesse Richman, associate professor of political science at ODU and lead author of the report. “If the Democrats, or the Republicans, can find a way to reconnect with voters who are increasingly disenchanted with both parties, it will likely make a major difference in the election.”
The Senate Race
Looking at the U.S. Senate race, the survey shows that incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is expected to win Hampton Roads and Virginia overall versus his Republican challenger Hung Cao. The survey notes that Kaine would have a smaller margin of victory this year than their last race in 2018.
61% of respondents who named a major party said they would vote for the Democratic candidate. 39% said they would support the Republican candidate.
The Presidential Election
Data collection for the survey took place during the period in which President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, July 21. After Biden's withdrawal, the survey asked an additional question giving the final 237 respondents a chance to weigh in on his decision. More than 82% of respondents supported Biden's decision not to run for reelection; the study found that opposition was concentrated among respondents who identified with the Republican party.
The study ran into some difficulty polling the presidential race thanks to Biden removing himself from the contest and changing the top of the Democratic ticket. The survey included three versions of a question asking about respondents' preferences: support for Biden, support for an unspecified Democratic candidate, and support for Vice President Kamala Harris.
The combined data showed support for the Democratic candidate, whether Biden or Harris winning 56% of the region's vote. Former Republican President Donald Trump won nearly 44% of the vote.
The study found Hampton Roads was consistent with a close outcome statewide.
However, the study notes that if responses are limited to after Biden dropped out of the race, the outlook is worse for Democrats. Before Biden dropped out, Trump was polling at 42.6%; after Biden dropped out the polls jumped to 45.2%.
“The subsample sizes are small, but the post-Biden-drop performance by the Democratic presidential candidate in this regional survey should remind Democrats that taking Virginia for granted would be a mistake,” Richman said.
Election Security
80% of respondents shared that they were very or somewhat satisfied with election security at their polling place. Less than 5% of respondents reported being intimidated by someone at their polling place in the last 10 years.
You can find the full 2024 LIHR report on Politics and Political Opinions here.
