NORFOLK, Va. — The 2024 election is less than three weeks away, but on Thursday people flocked to Slover Library in Norfolk to listen to Dr. Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia for Politics, share his predictions and outlook on what the election results may be.
13News Now had the opportunity to talk with Sabato one-on-one.
13News Now: The latest CNU poll shows that Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leads former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump by 11 points. What does that say about Virginia and swing state North Carolina?
Sabato: Well, it doesn't say much. I mean, every state is its own universe, and that's why we have this strange electoral college system. So the fact that one state is at 11 [points] and the other is maybe at seven or five or 10, we don't know. And the swing states, like North Carolina, have enormous expenditures right now. Virginia is not a swing state. We're nowhere near competitive.
Yes, Harris will win Virginia. Remember, those other seven [swing states] will determine who wins. We're [Virginia] just there.
Do you believe Virginia will be characterized as a swing state this presidential year or has history shown it to be more Democratic despite having a Republican Governor, Glenn Youngkin?
Well, Glenn Youngkin was elected in an off year, when turnouts are always much lower, and he won very narrowly; it was 51% to 49%, so that did not signal any kind of change, major change, title change in Virginia.
Virginia is a Lean Democratic state to Likely Democratic state. It didn't use to be that way. When I was growing up it was, it was heavily Democratic, but that was a completely different Democratic party, very, very conservative, and then it became overwhelmingly Republican and stayed that way through both of George W. Bush's elections.
And then, Barack Obama: boom, the change occurred. It occurred mainly because of Northern Virginia, but also Hampton Roads. Hampton Roads went very Democratic as well, so I think it will last a while. I can't see any Republican associated with Donald Trump carrying Virginia anytime soon.
What are Trump and Harris' chances of winning the swing state of North Carolina?
Well, it's actually closer than it was going to be because of the horrible hurricane [Helene]. Most of the west in North Carolina is conservative and Republican. Well, now those people have been scattered. They're scattered in North Carolina. They're scattered around the country, they don't know how they're going to vote, where they're going to vote.
So I would say it's close. I would give a tiny edge to Trump because North Carolina has gone Republican every four years since it went Democratic, very narrowly, for Obama in 2008.
Will the misinformation spread by Trump and other Republicans about FEMA in North Carolina backfire on them and give Harris a boost?
Well, it ought to. It should backfire, but I doubt it. People don't even know what the truth is, and that's a part of the problem today. We have so much misrepresentation and outright lying, people can't figure out what the truth is. Still, it's just unforgivable that people were complicating the victims' lives by not telling the truth about what FEMA was doing, which was trying to help people. Still, you can't excuse things like that. I don't care what your party affiliation is, you can't excuse things like that.
Do you think it was a good idea for Harris to say she wants to distinguish herself from President Biden?
Yes, because for whatever combination of reasons, Biden is unpopular, and he's going to remain unpopular. He's only in for a few more months. [His approval rating percentage] was in the mid 30's. When he withdrew, he finally got back in the 40's, but he's still in the low 40's, and that's tough.
If Harris loses, one of the major reasons is going to be because Biden never managed to become relatively popular again, and it's really hurt Harris.
There was no second debate. Do you think that will affect the candidates' campaigns?
No, we should have had two debates, but I understand why we didn't, but we should have had a second debate. It's a shame that we didn't.