How likely is it that you’ll encounter an infected relative or friend, this holiday?

GLOUCESTER, Va. — If you don’t have plans to cut down the number of people at your Thanksgiving celebration this year, you might want to reconsider.

New data from the Virginia Department of Health shows the likelihood of someone showing up to your Thanksgiving gathering with coronavirus.

For most of the state, in a gathering of 20 family members or friends, there is a near 1 in 5 chance that someone is infected.

In southwest Virginia, nearly 1 in 3 will have someone with COVID-19.  

Director of Three Rivers Health District and Acting Director of Eastern Shore District, Dr. Richard Williams said the models are showing exactly what most of us would expect 

“It is intuitively obvious," he said. "The model is telling us exactly what we would think. The more disease that is out there, the more people with disease, then the higher the group you’re gathering with, the bigger the chance you’re going to encounter at least one or more people with the disease.” 

In eastern Virginia, if you keep your gathering to five people, there’s a less than 5 percent chance of someone being infected. But if you have 30 people, there’s 23 percent chance someone has coronavirus. 

In other parts of the state, more than a fourth of such gatherings will have an infected person, while nearly half of them will be compromised in the southwest.

Williams of the Virginia Health Department noted the chances of meeting an infected relative or friend are lower in the eastern part of the state. But with cases on the rise, the odds that you’ll avoid them are getting less likely every week. 

“It’s very easy to rationalize the risk is lower than it really is and to think it’s okay. We’ll be okay if we gather," Williams said.  “The more people present in any congregate setting. The more likely there are one or more COVID positive people, they might not even know it.”

The fact is, Thanksgiving could trigger another spike in coronavirus cases, especially if your relatives or friends haven’t been careful as you think.

“If you gather with people who take no precautions in their daily lives, if they commonly gather in groups without respiratory protection, without social distancing, if they frequent bars and do high-risk activities, then your risk with that group of people is going to be very high,” Williams said.