Virginia health officials optimistic about improved immunity, protection from Omicron sub-variant

NORFOLK, Va. — COVID-19 cases in Virginia are dwindling downward, with 97% of health districts reporting declining case rates.

At the same time, recent research from the CDC and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) found the frequency of the emerging BA.2 Omicron sub-variant is increasing in mid-Atlantic states.

But different from previous variants, this doesn’t automatically indicate COVID-19 cases will spike dramatically moving forward. Health experts remain optimistic that any surge from this variant would be less impactful than what we’ve already experienced.

RELATED: COVID-19 precautions are dying off. At the same time, health officials are keeping an eye on a new subvariant.

“I don’t think -- at least predictions are -- if we see an uptick which we will, it’s unlikely to be nearly the spike we saw with Omicron. We think we’ll have a more blunted response to this,” Dr. Julia Murphy said. She is part of the COVID-19 response team for the Virginia Department of Health (VDH).

Virginia is included in HHS’s Region 3, along with West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia. According to recent tracking as of mid-March, the BA.2 variant is prevalent among 23 percent of current COVID-19 cases in the region. The previous week, that number sat at 13%.

According to research from the UVA Biocomplexity Institute, the BA.2 sub-variant is likely to reach 50% prevalence by early April.

“We’ll see a surge in cases, but it will not look anything like it did with Omicron,” Murphy said.

According to Murphy, because of how many people the last wave infected, combined with how genetically close the Omicron and BA.2 sub-variants are to each other, it’s thought to be highly unlikely that someone could get infected by the new variant if they previously tested positive.

RELATED: White House looks to next phase of pandemic with new COVID-19 response plan

“When we use that term surge, it can conjure up a lot of images of people’s minds. They might start thinking ‘Omicron-like’ surge. We’ll likely see an increase in BA.2, but we won’t see that huge spike. We will see noticeable increases but it’ll be more gentle,” Murphy said.

Murphy also noted that based on current data, the new sub-variant is just as, if not more, transmissible as Omicron, but the risk for severe illness and hospitalization remains lower.

Case rates are the lowest seen since last summer, but that could all change depending on this new variant.