NORFOLK, Va. — The surge of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has broken records in Virginia – both for daily cases of the virus and testing positivity rates.
Now, Virginia Department of Health data shows the transmission of the virus may be slowing down.
Public health leaders said the data is promising, but it's too soon to proclaim that the Omicron variant is in retreat.
"It is encouraging to see some of these numbers decline, I think it may be a little early to put a lot of stock in that," said Dr. Julia Murphy, State Public Health Veterinarian in the Office of Epidemiology and member of the COVID-19 Response Team.
Murphy said modeling shows the Omicron variant may be peaking in Virginia this week, while falling positivity rates and cases are good signs for the future.
"It's better, and that's ok, we'll take better, but just remember, as much as we can control what we can control and decrease the likelihood we are getting infected and potentially infecting others, we can help shape the future," she said.
VDH reported its highest 7-day testing positivity rate for COVID-19 on January 7, at 36.3 percent.
Testing positivity rates represent how many people who test for the virus return positive results, a good metric for health leaders to measure community transmission.
Since January 10, the statewide positivity rate has dropped from 36% to 31.6%, falling consistently each day.
Still, that's nearly double the non-Omicron high of 17.3% reported in January 2021.
Dr. Murphy said there are a few reasons doctors may be hesitant to say Virginia is 'past the peak' of the latest surge.
For one, more people are taking at-home COVID-19 tests. Positive results may not be consistently reported to VDH, leading to an undercount.
However, Murphy said public health leaders might not be far away from sharing good news.
"We would be hopeful that before too long we might see this trend continue and feel confident that this is a real trend downward in regard to the Omicron surge," she said.
Dr. Murphy stressed individual accountability and vigilance as key factors moving forward - including getting vaccinations and booster shots, masking, staying home when sick and getting tested for any symptoms as necessary actions to help keep COVID-19 transmission declining.
"We need to keep at it, there may be some hopeful signs, but let’s not take our foot off the pedal," she said.