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Old Dominion research shows Virginia won't fully recover from pandemic until at least 2022

Even after the vaccine is distributed, COVID's impacts will be long-lasting.

NORFOLK, Va. — A new report from Old Dominion University finds Virginia is still years away from recovering from the pandemic.

In the "State of the Commonwealth" report for 2020, ODU faculty and researchers analyzed COVID-19's economic and social impact by looking at the state's metropolitan areas. The report paints a picture of a years-long process before the state returns to the way things once were. 

“Virginia over 10 years prior to the pandemic had gained 500,000 jobs. It lost almost all those jobs in about two months through temporary furloughs and permanent layoffs. It's gained about 300,000 of that back, but there's still a sizable workforce that remains to get their jobs back, and people have just left the workforce," said Robert McNab, professor of Economics at the Strome College of Business and the report's editor. 

The report compares the pandemic's job losses to the Great Recession, a period that it says took Virginia 70 months to recover all the jobs lost during that time span. 

Other findings from the report:

  • Between May and November 2020, half of the respondents reported a large negative effect on overall business operations
  • By the end of November, 1 out of 9 Virginia businesses responded they had reduced the number of paid employees at their establishment
  • In a two month span at the onset of the pandemic, 1 out of 9 Virginians went from gainful employment to temporary furloughs or permanent layoffs
  • October of 2020: Hampton Roads had the highest unemployment rate of all metropolitan areas in Virginia at 5.9 percent
  • 36.7 percent of Virginians reported signs of anxiety or depression in November 2020

McNab told 13News Now that many of the report's findings go beyond COVID-19, that simply shine a light on inequities and fractures in the state that existed well before the virus. 

“We see in the COVID-19 data, we see in the economic data and educational data, disproportional burdens on African-American communities in Virginia," McNab said. 

Recommendations based on the report's findings include investment in K-12 education, increased mental health resources, donating to food banks, and breaking down political barriers to work toward a common recovery.

“Are we going to learn the lessons from this pandemic, that we failed to learn from? Or are we failed to do this every time there’s an economic recession?" McNab asked.

   

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