NORFOLK, Va. — Editor's Note: When originally published, this story discussed a 30% chance that Virginia would experience a surge in COVID-19 cases in the winter. The story has been corrected to reflect that there is a 30% chance that the state could experience a surge that exceeds numbers seen during the Delta surge.
Virginia Department of Health Epidemiologist Dr. Julia Murphy said cases of COVID-19 across the state are trending in the right direction: down.
"We've gone from at the height of the last peak of about 4,000 cases a day in mid-September down to about a thousand," Murphy said.
The case number, hospitalizations and deaths all down since the Delta variant surge this past summer. The University of Virginia COVID-19 model shows there's a 30% chance that we could see a winter surge that will have case numbers surpassing what we experienced in the summer because of the Delta variant.
If we do, that surge could come in the first quarter of 2022.
"Future case growth does remain possible if transmission rates and activities mirror those of 2020," Murphy said, adding that flu season could affect the UVA model and have a big impact on hospitals.
"It could factor into a scenario where hospitals could be pushed to a near capacity situation in January of 2022," Murphy stated.
The doctor said this could be a major setback in the progress that the state of Virginia, as a whole, has seen over the past few months.
Currently, VDH is monitoring outbreaks and variants closely to see if there is a change in transmission which ultimately could lead to a surge.
"The more we allow any virus to circulate, the more opportunity it has to have severe impacts on those who are more vulnerable as well as mutate," Murphy said.
Murphy said following COVID-19 mitigation strategies, including wearing a mask and getting vaccinated, are ways to help prevent a surge in cases.
