NORFOLK, Va. — With a little more than a week until Thanksgiving, shoppers are finding the ingredients for their holiday feast front and center at the grocery store.
As for how much those ingredients will strain their wallets, however, there's good and bad news based on spending and inflationary trends.
On Wednesday, the American Farm Bureau Federation released results of it's annual Thanksgiving dinner survey, which indicate costs have gone down slightly from the record high last year but remain high when compared to recent years.
"We find that this year’s classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 will be $61.17, or approximately $6.12 per guest. This represents a 4.5% decline from historically high prices last year," Farm Bureau Economist Betty Resnick wrote. " ... Despite the year-over-year relief, the cost is still 25% higher compared to 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic."
On Tuesday, Norfolk resident Anne Marie Wynne was getting a head start on gathering things for Thanksgiving dinner and said she noticed a boost in costs on certain items.
"I did notice some two-for-one deals, so that was good. But all in all, prices are more than last year," she said.
To give others an idea of what the costs are really looking like in Hampton Roads, 13News Now went to the grocery store, too. Carrying along the list the American Farm Bureau Federation uses to estimate the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner, we looked at the prices for items like turkey, pumpkin pie mix, rolls, stuffing and sweet potatoes. Factoring in loyalty discounts at the supermarket and sales, our total hovered around $68.
We also talked with Tidewater Community College Professor Emeritus of Business Administration Peter Shaw. He predicts a feast for 10 people will cost around $68 this year. He advised shoppers to expect a 4% jump compared to last year.
"From 2020 to 2022, the base price of Thanksgiving went up 37% and now it's going up another four. The bad news, even though the increase is smaller, the base is still way up [there] compared to what it was in 2020," he said.
Shaw said an estimated increase of only 4% in 2023 has a lot to do with lower turkey costs. "But your side dishes have gone up stubbornly," he added.
At $27.53, a 16-pound frozen turkey will account for about 45% of the cost of Thanksgiving dinner this year, according to the AFBF survey. But that's a 5.6% decrease from last year. Canned pumpkin pie mix and dinner rolls are the Thanksgiving food items that increased in price the most this year, according to the AFBF survey, while the cost of whipping cream and fresh cranberries dropped the most.
To further understand the cost of Thanksgiving, economists outlined mixed relief for consumers and told shoppers to not expect tremendous savings in this 2023 Wells Fargo Thanksgiving financial report.
Cori Hines, a Norfolk resident, has not rounded up what he needs for the holiday just yet. However, he is keeping his eyes peeled for good deals.
"I see they have everything on the displays in the center aisles. So, it's definitely got my attention, but because I'm a procrastinator, I'm probably going to wait until next week," Hines said.
And waiting might not be such a bad thing.
"I think the wild card here is that the shopping supermarkets have realized consumers have cut back on their spending. And so, in the closer days to Thanksgiving, if their inventory is still kind of high, you're going to see some great price reduction," Shaw said.
He recommended shoppers monitor prices on a daily basis and pick a cut-off date ahead of the holiday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also came out with a report on Tuesday saying consumer inflation eased in October, partly because of cheaper prices for gas and airfare.
However, Shaw warned that until you hear the Federal Reserve chairman declare victory on inflation, interest rates will not go down just yet.
"I don't see anything coming down before May or June, personally," Shaw said about interest rates.